Strategic Services and Risk Management

Strategic Trends Forecasting, Contingent Scenarios and Futures Analysis

As part of a highly interactive consulting relationship with clients, we apply our methodological tools and intelligence infrastructure to deliver highly tailored robust decision-support tools. Some of the benefits these tools offer clients are:

• The ability to fine tune resilience and contingency planning and build adaptive capacity
• Metrics to identify opportunities in new markets and products as well as protect existing income and operations
• Improved technical pricing and risk selection
• Optimise budgets and capacity allocation across multiple lines of business
• Profitable navigation of a changing regulatory and commercial environment through access to trusted and demand-driven intelligence
• Frameworks for evaluating policy and business development options
• Techniques to forecast strategic risks alongside market, resource and technical risks in a single cash-flow model

Some examples of specific projects and tools clients can access in a strategic consulting relationship include:

Strategic Trends Forecasts and Futures Analysis are tools to model how strategic trends are likely to evolve at both the local and global level in the long-term outlook (10+ years into the future) and how outlier, high-impact scenarios would affect clients. This allows clients to identify future intelligence requirements early and formulate strategic policies and plans. Using both quantitative and qualitative methods and data-driven scenario models, we identify how strategic trends are most likely to affect clients’ operations and environments on a probabilistic basis.

Critical Scenario Selection and Stress-Testing Models benefit from our third generation methodology of systematic topic selection using both software tools and analytical judgement. Events modelled can include location-specific violent risk events (wars, terrorist attacks) or political risk (defaults, coups, nationalisations, economic events with global consequences). Our scenarios reflect a balance of risks (high-impact/low-probability, iterative scenarios, client-specific scenarios) and are intelligence-led to be realistic at micro level (for example, we identify how an economic downturn would be distributed across sectors).

Probable Maximum Loss/Value at Risk Analysis builds on stress-testing models by integrating our intelligence and analysis expertise to assess scenario probability. This provides clients with calculations of loss ratios for a number of scenarios.

Customised Risk and Opportunity Indices offer an exposure management tools differentiated by country or business line. Indices can be superimposed against exposures and rates of return to indicate the greatest risks and opportunities.

Risk Discounted Cash-Flow Modelling informed by Exclusive Analysis’ risk intelligence allows companies to fine tune Risk Discounted Cash-Flows. Where none presently exist, Exclusive Analysis can build Risk Discounted Cash-Flow Models based on our proprietary methodology and intelligence inputs.