Country Risk Evaluation and Assessment Model (CREAM) is our online risk model which covers all countries across war, terrorism, political risk and civil unrest.
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Upcoming Events
IUA Market Briefing
22 January 2009
Simon Sole and Kirsten Parker will be presenting on 'Global hotspots and developing trends for political risk and violent risk in 2009'
For more information, please contact Georgie Elston.
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International Petroleum Week
17 & 18 February 2009
On 17 February Teymur Huseynov is presenting on 'The Changing 'Rules of the Game' in Russia's Energy Sector'
On 18 February Zaineb Al-Assam is presenting on 'Saudi's Upstream Energy Exploration and Development: Political Risks and Opportunities'
For more information, please contact Georgie Elston.
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RIMS 2009 Annual Conference and Exhibition, Orlando
21 April 2009
Simon Sole will be speaking on a panel discussing 'Trade Disruption - Supply Chain Risk Management'
For more information, please contact Georgie Elston.
Past Events
Exporta: Trade And Supply Chain Solutions Europe, Malta
17th-18th June 2008
James Howarth, Deputy Director Of The Middle East And North Africa Desk, presented on "Emerging Euro-North Africa Opportunities".
Exporta: Trade And The Credit Crunch, Business Briefing, London
21st May 2008
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James Howarth, Deputy Director Of North Africa & Middle East Division, presented on the "Middle East".
ICBI: Projects International, France
20th-22nd May 2008
Teymur Huseynov, Head Of Eurasia Division, presented on "Russia: State Capitalism And New Perestroika".
RIMS 2008, San Diego
27th April- 21st May 2008
Rafael Gomes, Deputy Director Of Political Risk, led a session entitled "ERM: The Political Dimensions", which brought together leading practioners and offered an understanding of the qualitive dimensions of ERM from sucessful case studies.
Chatham House - Security and Defence Futures: Possibilities and Practicalities, London
21 + 22 February 2008
Simon Sole, Chief Executive Officer, presented the key issues the military should watch out for when strategically planning where to allocate resources. The session will include 5-year forecasts for Russia, Iran and China
Informa: Insuring Export Credit and Political Risk, London
28 February 2008
Exclusive Analysis ran a workshop examining the governments and policies most likely to change and the probable impact on firms' abilities to meet their contractual commitments in key export sectors.
Emerging Markets Trade and Political Risk Forum, London
22 + 23 January 2008
Teymur Huseynov, Head of Eurasia Division, presented on "CIS and Central Asia: Looking out for Black Swans".
IQPC, 3rd Global Summit: Security for Critical Energy Infrastructure, London
31 January + 1 February 2008
Dr Thoko Kaime, Head of Africa Division, presented on "Mitigating Operational Risks: Utilising Political Risk Forecasting While Setting Up New Projects".
Exporta: Sub-Saharan Africa Project and Trade Finance Forum
London, 10 + 11 December 2007
Dr Thoko Kaime, Head of Africa Division, presented on "Zimbabwe: Understanding the Political Risk Environment".
Trade Finance Middle East Conference
Dubai, 4 + 5 December 2007
Dr James Howarth, Deputy Head of Middle East Division, moderated a panel on "Trading Risk and Reward: GCC country updates - market intelligence from the front line."
Lloyds 360 Live Debate - Global Business: Under Attack?
New York, 2 November 2007
Simon Sole chaired the panel discussion at this debate, on the subject: "What should businesses do to prepare for future terrorist threats and what role can risk management play?"
Hedge Funds World 2007
Miami, 22 October 2007
Carlos Caicedo spoke on political risks in Latin America, including where expropriation risks will increase in the next 12 months, the likelihood of macroeconomic imbalances intensifying in Argentina and Venezuela and the prospects for investors in Calderon's Mexico.
Managing and Insuring Political Risk and Terrorism - IIR/ IBC Conferences
18 September 2007, London
Exclusive Analysis led a pre-conference workshop focusing on key emerging markets for European businesses (Iran, the Middle East, North Africa, Russia, Turkey, the Baltics and the CIS). The workshop included a session on Terrorism Risk Modelling.
19 September 2007, London
Simon Sole spoke on managing political risk and terrorism in the Brazil, Russia, India and China economies.
www.iir-conferences.com/political risk
The Evolution of al-Qaeda: Implications for Underwriters - International Underwriters Association
20 August 2007, London
Simon Sole examined how understanding the intent and capability of terrorist groups will help underwriters to know which assets are most at risk and to assess the likely size and cost of future attacks.
Simon Sole, CEO of Exclusive Analysis, participated in the Lloyd's 360 Live Debate
15 May 2007
Over 200 delegates attended the Lloyd's 360 Live Debate entitled 'Global Business: Under Attack?' on 15 May 2007. The debate explored the key issues surrounding terrorism and political risk and its impact on global business.
Click here to find out more about the event and view speaker highlights.
Exclusive Analysis regularly provides the media with expert commentary on recent developments to political and violent risk environments around the world.
CNN, BBC World, CNBC, Bloomberg and Sky News all carry interviews with regional experts working for Exclusive Analysis. Analysts are also featured on BBC radio programmes and independent stations.
Exclusive Analysis hosts roundtable discussions to which journalists are invited. Our articles are published in a range of publications and we are regularly quoted in the press.
For further information please contact Alex Poole-Warren on +44 (0)20 7868 2817 or e-mail: alex.pw@exclusive-analysis.com
EA in the Press
Television
| Date | Station | Comment |
Thursday, 29th May, 2008 |
CNBC (Arabia) | Rafael Gomes discussed the OECD report on food prices. |
Friday, 23rd May, 2008 |
Bloomberg (Spain) | John Raines analysed the implications of the US democratic nomination on US foreign policy. |
Friday, 16th May, 2008 |
CNN | Kevin Liu assessed the implications of the Myanmar government's post-cyclone response to foreign aid. |
Friday, 9th May, 2008 |
Bloomberg | Amarjit Singh analysed the Indian stock exchange and forecasted the stock equity outlook for the year ahead. |
Friday, 9th May, 2008 |
CNN | Amarjit Singh assessed the acceptance of foreign aid by the government of Myanmar following the recent cyclone. |
Wednesday, 30th April, 2008 |
CNBC (Poland) | Joanna Gorska forecasted the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Polish Council Of Monetary Policy, forecasting that a rise was unlikely in the next two months. |
Wednesday, 23rd April, 2008 |
Bloomberg (South Africa) | John Raines discussed the Pensylvania primary in the US democratic nomination race. |
Saturday, 5th April, 2008 |
Canada Broadcasting Corporation | Thoko Kaime discussed the factions within Zimbabwe's two main political parties and forecasted where unrest would occur in the country. |
Thursday, 3rd April, 2008 |
Blomberg (South Africa) | Thoko Kaime was interviewed on Mugabe's backers mobilizing militants adn reviving resentment over white-owned farms in Zimbabwe. |
Thursday, 3rd April, 2008 |
Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo discussed the Fitch Ratings results for Peru. |
Wednesday, 19th March, 2008 |
CNBC Europe | Kevin Liu analysed the relationship between Tibet and China and forecasted the effects that this would have on the forthcoming Olympics. |
Monday, 3rd May 2008, 2008 |
Bloomberg | John Raines analysed McCain and Brown's "Special Relationship". |
Wednesday, 20th February, 2008 |
Bloomberg | John Raines analysed the contest between Clinton and Obama in light of the Wisconsin primary. |
Tuesday, 19th February, 2008 |
CNBC | Carlos Caicedo forecasted the likely business implications of Fidel Castro's resignation. |
Tuesday, 19th February, 2008 |
Bloomberg | Joanna Gorska discussed the impact of Kosovo's declaration of independence on other breakaway reagions, such as Abkhazia, in the area. She also analysed the liklihood of an eruption of violence in Kosovo, concluding that any such violence. if it did occur, was unlikely to reach the levels seen in March 2004. |
Monday, 18th February, 2008 |
Bloomberg | Amarjit Singh commented upon the elections in Pakistan. |
Monday, February 18, 2008 |
CNBC | Joanna Gorska discussed Kosovo’s declaration of independence issued on 17 February 2008 commenting that the declaration of independence would not change the geopolitical situation in the Balkans – it was likely that major Western states would recognise an independent Kosovo while Russia would veto any such recognition attempts at the UN forum. |
Friday, February 15, 2008 |
CNBC Europe | Teymur Huseynov commented on the commercial implications of elections in Russia and Ukraine. |
Friday, February 8, 2008 |
CNBC | OB Sisay analysed the investment opportunities in South Africa for 2008. |
Tuesday, January 29, 2008 |
CNBC Africa | Thoko Kaime analysed the commercial implications of Southern Africa power shortages. |
Monday, January 28, 2008 |
CNBC Europe | John Raines commented on the State of Union Address. |
Monday, January 7, 2008 |
Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo analysed the 2008 outlook for Brazil and Venezuela. |
Friday, January 4, 2008 |
CNBC Europe | John Raines discussed the first Democratic and Republican presidential caucus. |
Friday, January 4, 2008 |
Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo concluded that it was highly unlikely that Brazil would the radical nationalist polices implemented elsewhere in the region, namely Venezuela and Bolivia. |
Saturday, December 29, 2007 |
CNN International | Amarjit Singh analysed the implications for the political and security situation in Pakistan if elections are postponed. |
Friday, December 28, 2007 |
CNN Europe | Amarjit Singh commented on the implication of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination for US relations with Pakistan. |
Thursday, December 27, 2007 |
BBC World Business Review | Amarjit Singh analysed the economic implications of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in Pakistan. |
Thursday, December 27, 2007 |
CNBC | Amarjit Singh commented on the political situation in Pakistan after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination and its implications for investments into Pakistan. |
Thursday, December 13, 2007 |
CNBC | John Raines analysed the Republican Political Debate |
Monday, December 10, 2007 |
CNBC | Joanna Gorska discussed the Kosovo question in light of the 10 December deadline for the troika (EU, US and Russia) to report back on Kosovo negotiations to the UN Secretary General. |
Monday, December 3, 2007 |
CNBC | Teymur Huseynov commented on the Russian elections |
Monday, December 3, 2007 |
CNN | Carlos Caicedo analysed the impact of the referendum results in Venezuela. |
Monday, November 26, 2007 |
BBC World | Amarjit Singh analysed the measures being taken by the Chinese government to address the problem of overvaluation of stocks on the Chinese market |
Monday, November 26, 2007 |
CNBC | Amarjit Singh discussed the options available to Musharraf and whether the emergency would end peacefully. |
| Monday, November 26, 2007 | Bloomberg | Amarjit Singh analysed why Musharraf staged the state of emergency in Pakistan and the likelihood of Nawaz Sharif playing a role. |
Thursday, November 15, 2007 |
CCTV (China) | Kevin Liu was interviewed about terrorism risks in China. |
| Thursday, November 15, 2007 | CNN | Simon Sole analysed Gordon Brown's terrorism initiatives. |
Tuesday, November 13, 2007 |
CNN | Amarjit Singh commented on the Pakistan Military and its operations in the Swat Valley (North West Frontier Province). |
Monday, November 12, 2007 |
CNBC, The Other Dimension | OB Sisay participated in a panel analysing the kidnappings in Chad. |
Thursday, November 1, 2007 |
Bloomberg | James Howarth analysed the U.S-Iran relationship. |
Monday, October 29, 2007 |
CNN | Paul McGrath analysed the oil industry in Venezuela, pointing out the money spent on populist community projects and petro-diplomacy promoting socialism and anti-imperialism. |
| Monday, October 29, 2007 | Bloomberg | Paul Mc Grath commented on the elections in Argentina, looking ahead to the challenges facing the incoming government and likely climate for foreign investors. |
Monday, October 29, 2007 |
CNBC | Thoko Kaime provided an analysis of Chinese aid and loans to Africa and the implications for Western lenders. |
Tuesday, October 16, 2007 |
CNBC | Teymur Huseynov discussed Putin's visit to Iran and analysed the Russia-Iran relationship. |
Tuesday, October 16, 2007 |
CNBC | Joanna Gorska commented on the 21 October election in Poland and the potential impact on investment. |
Friday, October 12, 2007 |
CNBC | John Raines analysed the progress of the US election campaign. |
Wednesday, October 10, 2007 |
Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo discussed the CAFTA referendum in Costa Rica and the Bank of the South. |
Tuesday, October 9, 2007 |
CNN | Carlos Caicedo analysed the impact of Che Guevara's death and his lasting legacy throughout Latin America. |
| Friday, October 5, 2007 | CNBC, on Eni | Teymur Huseynov stated that Eni is unlikely to get its operating licence revoked as a result of renegotiation of the Kashagan PSA. Exclusive Analysis forecasts that Eni will either agree to pay a hefty fine for production delays and cost increase or transfer significant part of its shares to Kazakh state-controlled Kazmunaygas. |
| Monday, October 1, 8pm, 2007 | CNBC Africa, 45 minute panel interview on 'The Other Dimension' | Amarjit Singh analysed the situation in Myanmar. |
| Wednesday, September 26, 8pm, 2007 | CNBC Africa, 45 minute panel interview on 'We the People' | Carlos Caicedo discussed Venezuela under the leadership of Hugo Chavez and how he is perceived in neighbouring South American countries. |
| Friday, September 21, 2007 | CNN | Amarjit Singh discussed the Pakistani elections taking place on October 6. |
| Tuesday, September 11, 2007 | BBC Newsnight | Dr James Howarth analysed the implications of recently released al-Qaeda videos featuring Osama Bin Laden. Dr Howarth argued against the prevailing view that the video reflected the re-emergence of a reorganised al-Qaeda, rather it indicated that Bin Laden was isolated from the al-Qaeda movement. |
Wednesday, September 5, 2007 |
CNN | Katherine Baskerville discussed the threat of al-Qaeda in Europe. |
Tuesday, September 4, 2007 |
CNBC | James Howarth discussed the UK's pull-out from Basra, Iraq. |
Monday, September 3, 2007 |
CNBC | John Raines provided a commentary on the US electoral candidates. |
| Monday, September 3, 2007 | Bloomberg | Carlos Caicedo analysed Venezuela's macroeconomic policies and the likelihood that President Chavez devalues the Bolivar. |
Wednesday, August 29, 2007 |
BBC | John Raines was interviewed about Panama. |
| Wednesday, August 22, 2007 | Reuters | Teymur Huseynov discussed "muscular Russia" - including the decision to restart patrols using long-range bombers, the US Missile Defence Shield in Czechoslovakia and an analysis of Putin. |
| Tuesday, August 21, 2007 | BBC | Kevin Liu commented on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline. |
| Thursday, August 16, 2007 | CNBC | Kevin Liu discussed the six-party talks on North Korea's Nuclear Program. |
| Wednesday, August 15, 2007 | CNBC Africa | Dr Nathalie Wlodarczyk contributed to a panel discussing the reasons behind kidnapping, the impact of kidnapping on businessess and organisations working in high-risk areas and alternative forms of conflict resolution. |
| Wednesday, August 15, 2007 | Bloomberg | Amarjit Singh commented on the 60th anniversary of Indian Independence, and discussed the reputation and future of India and Pakistan. |
| August 13, 2007 | Bloomberg | John Raines discussed the presidential campaign in the US. |
| Date | Article | |
| 2 June 2008 |
Kirsten Parker is the director of analysis at Executive Analysis, a company that works with insurers and financial institutions to help them to do just this. Her organisation has teams of regional and sectoral analysts plus specialists in everything from military technology to law and economics; it also draws information from sources based in each country. Each analysis is tailored to an individual client’s situation. ‘We need a view about each country, for example, about how terrorism is going in Colombia, before we start, but we cannot generalise about it [when assessing risk],’ she says. ‘We need to look at very specific levels of detail.’ |
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| 23 May 2008 | Cattle Network - Africa Unrest Worsens As High Food Price Protests Spread ‘It isn't all about food, though; protests are more acute in countries where there's an existing driver for unrest,’ said OB Sisay, deputy head of Africa at political risk analysis firm Exclusive Analysis Ltd ‘The situation in Burkina Faso brings to mind the Ethiopian famine, which was caused by segregated markets,’ Sisay said. |
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| 15 May 2008 | Insurance Day - Green Activism Feeds Off The Media Political risk forecasting firm Exclusive Analysis told Insurance Day that it sees ‘the most likely response to media coverage to be increased protests and group campaigns’. |
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| 23 April 2008 | Thaiindian.com - Waziristan Not The Ideal Place To Conduct Global War On Terror The Telegraph quotes the report by Exclusive Analysis, a London-based strategic intelligence company, as saying. ‘Core al-Qa’eda is pursuing global ambitions, such as attacking Arab and Western governments, that are not shared by local tribal leaders. Indeed, the perceived violation of local tribal structures by foreign fighters would compromise their operations and therefore their capability to stage successful attacks,’ the outfit claims. |
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| 22 April 2008 | The Telegraph - Tribal Rivalry 'Limits al-Qaeda Terror Plans' ‘The risk of Waziristan emerging as a safe base for al-Qa'eda is very significantly mitigated by the inherently competitive social structures,’ says the report by Exclusive Analysis, a London-based strategic intelligence company. |
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| 20 April 2008 | Lloyds List - Sinking A Tanker Is Tough - Crippling An Economy Is A Different Proposition (Editorial By Exclusive Analysis) What we do see is local or national groups adopting targeting priorities that meet their specific goals. Risks to energy assets are greatest in the Gulf states,because Jihadi ideologues believe that Western military power in the Middle East can be defeated by attacking oil facilities that the West is seen to lean on, and that sustain pro-Western governments. |
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| 8 April 2008 | Bloomberg USA - Mugabe Backers Revive resentment Over White Farmers ‘They have started mobilizing the war veterans,’ Thoko Kaime, deputy head of the Africa division of London-based Exclusive Analysis, said in an interview. ‘The land issue is coming to the fore, we are going to see the dynamics of the 2000 campaign.’ |
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| March 25 2008 | Bloomberg USA - Mugabe Might See South African Support Dry Up With Zuma Victory Still, ‘there will be a harder line; there is going to be more open criticism,’ said Thoko Kaime, Deputy Head of the Africa division of London-based Exclusive Analysis. ‘Zuma is quite outspoken. If he feels he has to say something he will say it. He would want to address the issue of Zimbabwe.’ |
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| March 20 2008 |
Today, analysts are modelling less clear-cut and "hidden" perils in addition to the classic political risks such as governments taking over ownership of company assets, frustrating contracts, or holding up bank transfers. |
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| March 20 2008 | Strategic Risk - Challenges Grow More Complicated (Editorial by Exclusive Analysis) One reason why the political risk environment is likely to continue to diversify is that the institutions that historically acted as global policy anchors: the IMF, World Bank, and WTO, have experienced a major decline over the past decade. This structured intelligence collection then informs a quantitative risk register or a cash-flow model. |
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| March 11 2008 | Complinet - Modelling Can Help Insurers Assess Terrorism Risk, Industry Expert Says ‘The idea that terrorism risk cannot be modelled because there is no data is incorrect,’ according to Simon Sole, chief executive at Exclusive Analysis, at a recent presentation of findings on global terrorism to inform underwriters. Kirsten Parker, director of analysis at Exclusive Analysis, told Complinet that underwriters could use strategic forecasts and modelling to inform enterprise risk management at the strategic level and to take a view on the new markets they would like to enter. They could also address how to manage their exposures in high-risk, high-value countries and how the risk profiles feed into pricing decisions. |
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| 10 March 2008 | Lloyds List - China Tackles Shipyards Risks To Lure Investors (Editorial By Exclusive Analysis) Major builders are likely to maintain strong market positions with government subsidies. However, small- to medium sized shipyards have a lack of project management expertise, technological ‘know-how’ and sufficient capital to help improve their productivity. |
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| 5 March 2008 | El Pais - Quien Manda En Las Farc (Editorial By Exclusive Analysis) 'La muerte de Raúl Reyes, el segundo de las FARC, a manos de los militares colombianos tendrá un impacto significativo tanto en la estructura de mando de la guerrilla así como en la dirección estratégica de la confrontación con el Estado colombiano.' |
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| 27 February 2008 | Asia Times Online - Russia Gas Pact Energises Iran ‘Teymur Huseynov, Head of the Eurasia department at the Exclusive Analysis risk consultancy, confirms ‘Gazprom's vulnerability to US sanctions is minimal’.’
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| 21 February 2008 | Guardian Unlimited - Russian Energy Ties With Iran Send US A Message ‘... of any reprisal action from the United States, said Teymur Huseynov, head of the Eurasia department at risk consultancy Exclusive Analysis. ...’ |
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| 7 February 2008 | Insurance Day - Terrorist Attacks 'To Rise In 2008' ‘Expatriate kidnappings rocketed last year in the oil-producing Delta region and the area around Port Harcourt, while guerrilla groups attacked offshore marine assets and oil installations, Kirsten Parker, head of research at Exclusive Analysis, said.’ ‘In Pakistan, Exclusive Analysis reported a tenfold rise in suicide attacks targeting security forces and commercial property since 2006; she added that petrol stations, banks and commercial assets in Karachi are at particular risk this year.’ |
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| 7 February 2008 | Insurance Times - Terrorism Question Time: Facing The Challenge Of New Threats ‘Kirsten Parker, director of analysis for Exclusive Analysis, said there needed to be more work to determine the real exposure of chemical, biological and radiological attacks and what could be written and what was too heavy a risk.’ ‘Parker said modelling could assist in plotting out the degree of an attack, to analyse how far terrorists got in launching their attack and how likely they were to succeed.’ |
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| 6 February 2008 | Fairplay - Risk Analysis Without The Waffle ‘Knowing where to expect trouble is half way to avoiding it. Getting the latest news on security issues without spending long hours surfing the net is worth paying good money for. However, while dedicated news bulletins, such as LR-Fairplay’s own Sea-Sentinel, can provide the latest news, they can never claim to be exhaustive, nor can they cover any item in sufficient depth. Several consultants have moved to fill the gap, offering valuable insight into recent developments and advice on what to look out for. One such is London-based Exclusive Analysis, which published its Foresight 2008 at the end of last year.’‘Language matters; risk analysts are in the business of constructing clear, decision-ready forecasts, the section concludes. Brevity and precision are fundamental, contrasting with the journalistic obesity of the popular press. Foresight 2008 should be on every owner’s bookshelf.’ |
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| 10 December 2008 | Geospatial Solutions - Reducing The Risk Of Terrorism Insurance ‘Mike Bookman, practice lead for financial services and investment at Exclusive Analysis, defined TerrorRisk as an intelligence layer that can be placed on different maps on a building-by-building basis. An underwriter can then pull up those maps, he explained, and understand the likely severity of attack on any one of thousands of given targets.’ ‘At the moment, TerrorRisk is updated quarterly, but it may become a real-time product if customers demand that, said Bookman. Exclusive Analysis already gathers intelligence on a continuous basis from people around the globe, who sort through some 15,000 open sources of information while keeping an eye on local indicators of possible activity.’ |
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| 3 December, 2007 | Financial Times - Fund Management: Developing World Faces Headwinds ‘Pollution of environmental inputs could lead to anything from violent conflicts over water to widespread industrial action,’ says Rafael Gomes, deputy head of political risk at Exclusive Analysis, a risk forecasting company. ‘There's also an increased risk that governments may nationalise utilities and energy companies.’ |
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| November 26, 2007 | Latin Business Chronicle - Botnia: Argentina Protests Go Ahead ‘The opening of the Botnia pulp mill increases the risk that protesters will target the plant and associated assets in the coming year,’ Exclusive Analysis says. ‘The protests have not turned violent yet, but Uruguay's military deployment increases the risk of confrontation. Environmentalists have threatened to sabotage the plant.’
‘The dispute is also damaging bilateral trade between the two countries and Uruguay estimates it has lost $800 million in revenue, particularly from tourism, Exclusive Analysis points out.’ |
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| October 17, 2007 | Latin Business Chronicle - Ecuador Oil: More Trouble Ahead
Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa, inspired by policies in Venezuela, is aggressively attacking foreign oil companies in a gamble that likely will lead to further falls in oil output from Latin America's fifth-largest oil producing country... ... The new policies will also lead to more formal disputes, risk consultancy Exclusive Analysis warns. "President Correa's moves to increase state control over the oil industry will likely lead to more litigation with multinationals," Exclusive Analysis said in a commentary late last week.' |
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| September 11, 2007 | Homeland Security Watch - Where Are We Six Years After 9/11?
'I've noted the work of a London-based group here before called Exclusive Analysis. They are kind enough to send me their proprietary products and I'm, as they say over there, keen on sharing it here on occassion. They recently assessed the terrorist threat in light of the foiled Germany plot.... ...according to this, we're lucky that the terrorists are unlucky - or at least unsophisticated.' |
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| September 10, 2007 | Latin Business Chronicle - Guatemala: Few Radical Changes | |
| August 10, 2007 | Bloomberg - Sierra Leone Likely to Go to Second Round
'Sierra Leone's first presidential elections tomorrow since United Nations troops left the country following the end of an 11-year civil war, will probably go to a second round as anger mounts over unemployment in a country where only about one in three have work. Solomon Berewa, 69, the current vice president, will go through `'because the ruling party has a much more efficient party structure and wider popularity,'' said O.B. Sisay, deputy head of the Africa division at London-based Exclusive Analysis. Still, `'there is enough disappointment with the ruling party to help another candidate reach a second round run-off.' ... ...Presidential elections followed the end of the war in May 2002, in which there was very little political opposition to Kabbah's ruling party. 'This is the first election where there is a real battle for political space,' Sisay said. ``This is the first real test of democracy and of the country's independent institutions.' ... |
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| August 3, 2007 | Reuters - Darfur scares European Investors off Sudan's Oil Sudan has strong potential for oil exploration and expansion but big European players will be reluctant to invest for fear of pressure from groups advocating divestment because of violence in its Darfur region... .. 'The European players would be worried about reputational risks,' said O.B. Sisay, Deputy Head of Africa at Exclusive Analysis. The Sudan Divestment Taskforce has pressed U.S. universities and even large funds and financial institutions to divest from companies with interests in Sudan, in what activists say is the largest movement since the anti-apartheid campaign. Sisay said the Darfur war activists were influential. 'The pressure groups could create serious risks for the companies...which leaves a lot of space for Chinese companies.' ...
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