Upcoming Events - Exclusive Analysis

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Upcoming Events

Upcoming Events

Forecasting Asia: strategic insight for the year ahead

8th of September, London

Exclusive Analysis maps the strategic overview for China, Thailand, Pakistan and the Philippines. We examine the most likely scenarios for future operating environments in these countries, giving business development, strategy and security teams, actionable forecasts as inputs to their strategic planning.

4th Annual Managing Emerging Market Risk for Exporters, Investors and Lenders

4th -5th November 2010, Crowne Plaza, London

Exclusive Analysis will be running the post conference workshop 'Forecasting and Modelling Political Risk and Terrorism'. Attend this workshop to gain an overview of the key political and violent risk forecasts around the globe for the year ahead.

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For more information please contact Philip Skinner.

Colombia: Terrorism: Kidnapping is increasing, but is unlikely to return to historic high levels; foreigners tend to make up around 2% of victims. :: Nigeria: Regulatory Risk: Oil firms are likely to come under increased threat of prosecution and political pressure over oil spills ahead of 2011 elections. :: UAE: Non-Payment Risk: Dubai World’s restructuring is unlikely to proceed as planned and the Dubai government probably lacks the means to support it. :: UK: Terrorism: Demonstrative IED attacks or targeted assassinations in mainland UK by dissident republicans are likely over the next six months. :: Kazakhstan: Expropriation / Contract Risks: A pre-emptive purge of the southern elite looks increasingly likely to mean a reallocation of commercial assets. :: China: Civil Unrest: Independent unions are unlikely, but collective contracts and coordinated strikes are likely to increase in the next five years. :: Afghanistan: All Risks: Private security companies will likely face increased difficulties in operating; attacks on private security guards will likely increase. :: Colombia: Terrorism/War: Urban terrorism and drug-related criminality are likely to be the greatest security challenges for President Juan Manuel Santos. :: Argentina: Non-Payment Risk: The debt swap and very strong tax revenues are improving the outlook for sovereign and sub-sovereign bonds significantly. :: Egypt: A week of civil unrest could be expected in the event of President Mubarak's death, but changes in foreign or economic policy would be unlikely. :: Russia: Contract Risk: Russia has imposed a ban on all grain exports until 31 December 2010; Ukraine will likely introduce export quotas within two months. :: Pakistan: All Risks: Risks of a coup are likely to increase in the one-year outlook as the government struggles to rehabilitate over two million IDPs. :: Saudi Arabia: Political Stability: King Abdullah has increased his power at the expense of his half-brothers, mitigating risks to foreign firms post-succession. :: Mexico: Terrorism: Gangs are increasingly targeting road cargo in Mexico City, México, Puebla and Veracruz; vehicles and pharmaceuticals are top targets. :: Chile: Terrorism: Extremist indigenous Mapuche groups are likely to increase arson attacks against timber firms and farms in the Southern Araucania region. :: Mexico: Terrorism: Cartel bombings are likely to target police and media; risks of collateral damage and death/injury are rising, especially in Tamaulipas. :: Lebanon: Terrorism: Syrian-backed efforts to weaken Hizbullah militarily in Sunni-Shia areas are likely to limit sectarian violence temporarily in Beirut. :: Indonesia: Contract Risk: Mining and palm oil companies face a moratorium on their expansion plans in forested areas. :: Senegal: Contract Risk: Deteriorating government revenues increase risks to large state infrastructure projects and suppliers to SENELEC and SAR.