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North America Forecasting
The North America Division, led by Sarah Meagher, is responsible for the company’s analytical view on the US, Canada and the English-speaking Caribbean as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent North America consultations include:
- A customised training workshop for a client on the US Congressional and legal systems and US foreign policy.
- A report for a client on the risk to biotechnology conferences from the Animal Liberation Front.
- A series of trade finance reports on the risks of US and EU sanctions against specific Iranian banks and companies.
- Reports for an insurance client on terrorism risks to transport infrastructure, including tunnels, bridges and rail infrastructure in the US.
- Realistic disaster scenario modelling of terrorist attacks involving chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological weapons in New York City.
- An analysis of civil unrest and terrorism risks to airports in the Eastern Caribbean.
TRACK RECORD
The North America Division’s successful forecasting record has meant that we have been able to give our clients decision-ready intelligence on a number of questions to help them to improve their bottom line.
US
Our Forecast: 22 January 2008 ‘The trade deal with Colombia is likely to be delayed and renegotiated; delays with the South Korean and Panamanian deal are probable.’
Result: As of early 2009, none of the three trade deals had been approved by Congress.
US
Our Forecast: 1 January 2005 ‘In the US, direct action groups (such as the Earth Liberation Front and Animal Liberation Front) rather than Sunni extremists are likely to pose a more significant risk to property in 2005, primarily in the form of arson attacks on business perceived to pose a risk to the environment and animals.’
Result: Amongst other Earth Liberation Front attacks, in March and April 2005, two incendiary devices were discovered at a residential construction site in Redmond, Washington, and a home under construction in Sammamish, Washington, was severely damaged by a firebomb. In November 2005, the ELF set fire to empty homes in Hagerstown Maryland and to vehicles in Pacific Beach, California.
US
Our Forecast: 22 March 2007 ‘Accounting regulations will likely be further eased for foreign companies and for smaller businesses in the US.’
Result: On 25 July 2007, the SEC passed new regulations easing accounting rules for foreign and smaller businesses.
US
Our Forecast: 30 November 2007 ‘Mortgage lenders will likely see increased regulations and administrative costs as the subprime financial crisis unfolds.’
Result: In early December 2007, the Bush administration announced a new plan to freeze teaser mortgage rates. On 18 December 2007, the Federal Reserve announced proposals for increasing regulation on mortgage lending practices to halt 'abusive lending'.
Canada
Our Forecast: 9 September 2008 ‘Conservatives are likely to win new elections; while we expect no major policy changes, new opportunities will surface in the north….It is likely that the incumbent Conservative Party will form another minority government, but with additional seats.’
Result: On 14 October, the Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party won parliamentary elections; winning 143 of the 308 seats contested (46.4%), or a pickup of 19 seats from the 2006 elections. Harper quickly formed another minority government.
US
Our Forecast: 21 October 2008 ‘A new California law is unlikely to deter future Animal Liberation Front (ALF) attacks….Though California lawmakers insist this legislation gives law enforcement agencies more tools to investigate and prosecute animal-rights activists, it is unlikely that this new law will deter many, if any, future ALF attacks.’
Result: In November and December 2008, UCLA vehicles and facilities were vandalised. In January 2009, an animal shelter director parent’s home vandalised, and ALF claimed to have sent two UC Davis scientists letter bombs. In February 2009, UCLA vehicles were again vandalised, and ALF conducted vandalism operations against Carl’s Jr. Fast Food restaurant in Fresno, California.
Click here for SAMPLE NORTH AMERICA ANALYSIS
