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Middle East and North Africa Forecasting
The Middle East and North Africa Division, led by Zaineb al-Assam and Faysal Itani, is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries in the Middle East and North Africa as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Middle East and North Africa consultations include:
- An in-depth consultation for an international oil company about the terrorism outlook in Algeria.
- A due diligence report on a financial institution in the Gulf for a banking client.
- A location-intelligence report rating the relative risks of all airports and ports in Iraq for an insurance company.
- A report on the risks to specific industrial, logistic and government assets in Lebanon and Israel during the 2006 war.
- An analysis of reputational risks of working with certain counter-parties in the Iraqi energy industry.
- A strategic consultancy for a government on food security in the Middle East.
TRACK RECORD
The Middle East and North Africa Division’s successful forecasting record has meant that we have been able to give our clients decision-ready intelligence on a number of questions to help them to improve their bottom line.
Yemen
Our Forecast: 7 April 2008 ‘There is a growing risk of a car bomb attack on foreign diplomatic and energy assets, as well as government targets in the capital, San'a.’
Result: On 17 September, a car bomb exploded close to the US Embassy in the residential Dhahr Himyar district of the capital, San'a.
Iran
Our Forecast: 27 February 2007 ‘Iran faces a rising risk of civil unrest due to gasoline rationing or fuel price rises, particularly in the first half of 2007.’
Result: Petrol rationing was introduced in June 2007. On 4 July 2007, Iran arrested some 80 individuals in connection with attacks on petrol stations and protests over fuel rationing.
Mauritania
Our Forecast: 4 January 2008 ‘Military figures will very probably retain significant potential to (intervene in politics) should they deem circumstances require it. .....this would be most likely if Abdellahi's government started acting significantly against the interests of the military... a further military coup would not necessarily undermine foreign commercial interests.
Result: On 6 August 2008, a military coup occurred soon after President Abdellahi removed 4 generals.
Israel
Our Forecast: 29 July 2008 The focal point for violence between Arabs and Jews will move to Jerusalem with the expansion of Jewish settlements in Arab neighbourboods
Result: There was a series of incidents in the last half of 2008. On 22 September 2008, in Tzahal Square, Jerusalem, a Palestinian teenager drove a car into pedestrians before being shot dead; 15 people were injured. On 23 October 2008, in east Jerusalem, a Palestinian man stabbed to death an Israeli and injured a policeman, before being shot and injured. On 3 December 2008, in east Jerusalem, a Palestinian was seriously wounded after being stabbed in the ultra-Orthodox Mea She'arim neighbourhood.
Iran
Our Forecast: 4 June 2008 ‘Western energy investments are unlikely to be finalised before the nuclear dipsute is resolved. Total maintains its intention to secure a deal over Phase 11, but even this is not currently viable.’
Result: On 13 July 2008, Oil Minister Nozari confirmed Total's withdrawal from Phase 11 of the South Pars gas project, calling it a political move. As of early 2009, the China National Petroleum Corporation and Gazprom have finalised deals, but no Western energy companies have.
Saudi Arabia
Our Forecast: 1 June 2005 ‘The natural progression from attacks on expatriates in the oil industry…is attacks on these assets themselves.’
Result: On 24 February 2006, at the Abqaiq refinery, guards opened fire on two explosives-laden cars attempting to carry suicide bombers into the facility. On 28 March 2006, Arab media reported that Saudi forces thwarted a second attack on the Abqaiq oil refinery after the discovery of two car bombs.
Click here for SAMPLE MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA ANALYSIS
