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Latin America Forecasting
The Latin America Division, led by Carlos Caicedo and Paul McGrath, is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries in Latin America as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Latin America consultations include:
- A due diligence on a Brazilian construction firm for an international bank
- A detailed forecast of terrorism risks in Colombia for 2009 by sector and department.
- An analysis of confiscation, expropriation and non-payment risks in the energy sector in Venezuela.
- Reports for hedge fund and political risk underwriting clients on the impact of supply shocks to commodity markets due to unrest by copper miners in Chile and soya and wheat farmers in Argentina.
- A 360-degree review for a mining company of political risks to its assets and staff in-country.
TRACK RECORD
The Latin America Division’s successful forecasting record has meant that we have been able to give our clients decision-ready intelligence on a number of questions to help them to improve their bottom line.
Colombia
Our Forecast: 13 July 2007 ‘FARC guerrillas are likely to increasingly target the TransAndino oil pipeline in Nariño as security improves elsewhere.’
Result: On 8 May 2008, near Puerres, Nariño, the FARC blew up five sections of the Trans-Andino oil pipeline, halting oil flows to the port of Tumaco.
Paraguay
Our Forecast: 1 June 2005 ‘Paraguay's main source of revenue, agri-business, remains highly vulnerable to changes in terms of trade and environmental conditions, shocks in Mercosur's larger economies and civil unrest in the countryside.’
Result: On 7 April 2008, in Leopoldo Perrier, the authorities sent the Army to protect the soy harvest amid disputes between soy producers and peasants. In late 2008, there were a series of invasions of soy farms by landless peasants.
Mexico
Our Forecast: 25 February 2007 ‘President Calderon is likely to tackle monopolies gradually, with telecoms and broadcasting being opened to competition.’
Result: On 30 May 2007, the Mexican Supreme Court invalidated various articles of the controversial Federal Radio and Television law in an 8:1 vote, removing barriers of entry to a market previously cornered by media giants Televisa and TV Azteca On 26 November 2007, Mexico launched an anti-trust probe to curb monopolies in its mobile phone industry, including Carlos Slim's America Movil.
Bolivia
Our Forecast: 7 December 2007 ‘Protests at airports, particularly in eastern provinces, are likely to continue through 2008; Venezuelan aircraft risk being damaged.’
Result: On 5 August 2008, in Tarija, the police fought with protesters trying to occupy the airport's runway to protest a visit of President Chavez. On 5 September 2008, opposition protesters also took over the airport in Cobija, Pando, seizing a military aircraft.
Bolivia
Our Forecast: 26 March 2008 ‘The ban on edible oils exports is likely to be followed by government price intervention on utilities and cement in 2008.’
Result: On 1 May 2008, President Morales marked May Day by announcing the nationalisation of telecoms company Entel, partly owned by Telecom Italia.
Argentina
Our Forecast: 14 February 2006 - ‘Price controls will tame inflation temporarily, but will undermine economic policy credibility, triggering unrest….Unionised workers…(will) push for wage increases to offset mounting price inflation, setting the stage for increased industrial action in 2006 and 2007.’
Result: On 10 December 2006, farm workers ended a nine-day strike against the government's decision to cap beef and cereal exports to control inflation. On 20 April 2007, the government and six of the largest labour unions agreed on a 16.5% salary increase; unions had demanded above-inflation increases due to mistrust of the government's inflation reporting.
Click here for SAMPLE LATIN AMERICA ANALYSIS
