Global Forecasting - Exclusive Analysis

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Global Forecasting

Global Forecasting

PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS

We leverage our source network and methodology to forecast accurately, and we have developed a number of software tools and analytical techniques to support our forecasting team. We emphasise objectivity, precision and innovation in our analysis and are committed to producing commercially relevant forecasts for our clients. Our team is distinguished by the interaction of regional, thematic and technical experts to produce integrated, commercially relevant forecasts.

CUSTOMISED FORECASTING

The format of our forecasts and intelligence streams is customised to meet clients’ specific needs. Our forecasts can be presented in whichever format is most actionable and efficient for the client. We are client-facing and we aim to give clients timely, relevant information they did not already know and to identify specific risks and opportunities for countries, sectors, assets and deals.

STRATEGIC GLOBAL AND CROSS-REGIONAL FORECASTS

In addition to our regional expertise, we offer strategic services that focus on cross-regional trends and forecasts that are customised to clients’ global exposures and interests. Some examples of tools that we use to assess global risks and opportunities for our clients are:

• Strategic Trends Forecasts and Futures Analysis
• Critical Scenario Selection and Stress-Testing Models
• Customised Risk and Opportunity Indices
• Probable Maximum Loss/Value at Risk Analysis

Argentina: Political Risk: Government's vendetta against Grupo Clarin undermines legal stability in the media industry, including broadband and cable TV. :: Niger: Terrorism: AQIM’s expansion into southern Niger raises kidnap risks to aid agency personnel in Maradi and Zinder regions. :: Romania: Political Risk: Russia-Romania espionage row shows Moscow is stepping up pressure ahead of key September energy talks :: Bulgaria: Political Risk: Despite pro-Nabucco rhetoric, Bulgaria will continue to favour Russia on South Stream and Belene energy projects. :: Romania: Political Risk: Gabriel Resources' legal and media campaign will likely yield government approval to exploit Rosia Montana gold deposit :: South Africa: Regulatory Risk: Reform of South Africa’s centrepiece mining legislation is set to enhance the transparency of applications for prospecting rights. :: Ghana: Contract risk: The termination of the Kosmos-Exxon Jubilee oil field deal raises contract risks and will lead to reduced US investment and donor aid. :: Philippines: War/Terrorism: An offensive against NPA rebels is unlikely to significantly affect mining, but firms in Mindanao face extortion-related attacks. :: Brazil: Contract/Regulatory Risk: The energy regulator is likely to carry out deeper inspections of Petrobras facilities, raising the risk of new shutdowns. :: Mexico: Terrorism: Gangs are increasingly targeting road cargo in Mexico City, México, Puebla and Veracruz; vehicles and pharmaceuticals are top targets. :: Afghanistan: All Risks: Private security companies will likely face increased difficulties in operating; attacks on private security guards will likely increase. :: Saudi Arabia: Terrorism: Expatriates and Saudi officials are at risk of ambush while in transit, with execution the most likely outcome of any kidnap scenario.