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Eurasia Forecasting
The Eurasia Division, led by Teymur Huseynov and Joanna Gorska, is responsible for the company’s analytical view on all countries from Eastern Europe to Central Asia as well as managing the extensive source network in the region.
SAMPLE CONSULTATIONS
Some recent Eurasia consultations include:
- An influence groups analysis for a leading UK bank on five Russian oligarchs and the associated counter-party risks.
- A forecast for an insurance company on the terrorism risks to Ataturk Airport in Turkey.
- A due diligence report for a law firm on an international oil company operating in Kazakhstan.
- An intelligence briefing for a private equity house on the political and economic environment in Turkey.
- Several reports on non-payment risks associated with defence contracts in several Eastern European countries.
TRACK RECORD
The Eurasia Division’s successful forecasting record has meant that we have been able to give our clients decision-ready intelligence on a number of questions to help them to improve their bottom line.
Russia
Our Forecast: 7 June 2006 ‘As (Gutseriev, then CEO of Russneft) successfully consolidates the holdings of smaller oil companies, his assets will become increasingly strategic,…(making it) unlikely that Putin, or his eventual heir, will leave such assets beyond the control, whether direct or indirect, of the Kremlin.’
Result: In November 2007, investigations were opened into claims that Russneft violated environmental protection laws at several production sites in Siberia and into back tax claims against the company. In December 2007, Gutseriev sold his shares and left Russia, but as of early 2009, the ownership of Russneft’s assets, which have since been classified as ‘strategic’, had not been concluded.
Hungary
Our Forecast: 17 April 2006 ‘Industrial action is most likely in railway, public transport and aviation, increasing the risk of cargo and business disruption.’
Result: On 5 August 2007, fuel service staff and passenger safety controllers at Budapest's Ferihegy Airport went on strike over pay. On 10 December 2008, at Budapest's Ferihegy International Airport, traffic was stopped as staff affiliated with two unions walked out over work terms. On 19 January 2009, staff at Budapest's Ferihegy Airport resumed a strike over a new labour accord; one of the airport's three terminals was closed. Rail workers likewise staged walkouts in 2007, 2008 and 2009.
Ukraine
Our Forecast: 6 November 2007 ‘Our sources indicate that import prices for gas are likely to be increased from the current level of $130 per 1,000 cubic metres to at least $180.”
Result: On 13 March 2008, Ukraine agreed to pay $179.5 per 1,000m3 of gas supplied by Gazprom from March 2008 and $315 for gas supplied in January-February.
Poland
Our Forecast: 2 October 2007 ‘Civic Platform is likely to win early elections; yet, little progress is expected in labour-market reforms in the one-year outlook.’
Result: In October 2007, Civic Platform won parliamentary elections. As forecasted, the party did not garner enough votes to form a government and so formed a coalition with the Polish Peasants Party. There have not been any substantial reforms in the labour market.
Serbia
Our Forecast: 16 October 2007 ‘Gazprom is likely to secure the acquisition of (Serbian state oil company) NIS.’
Result: On 22 December 2008, Serbia's Energy Ministry stated that a deal to sell oil refiner Naftna Industrija Srbije to Russian firm Gazprom had been reached. In February 2009, the deputy CEO of Russia's Gazprom Neft, Kirill Kravchenko, became head of Serbian oil firm NIS after Gazprom Neft bought 51% of NIS.
Georgia
Our Forecast: 20 December 2007 'Patarkatsishvili's assets, grouped under umbrella management company Salford Georgia, will continue to be the targets of punitive measures by the Georgian government under a variety of technical, legal, administrative and financial pretexts..'
Result: On 10 January 2008, Georgia charged media tycoon Badri Patarkatsishvili with plotting a coup in connection with anti-government protests last year.
Our Forecast: 16 September 2009 'Risks to cargo and construction will increase in urban centres (including Zugdidi, Samtredia, Kutaisi and Tbilisi). Asset damage is to be expected, though it will be limited in scope, and attacks are unlikely to target civilians.
Result: On 21 October 2009, twelve cars of a freight train carrying fuel oil were blown up in a bomb attack in the Samegrelo area, western Georgia. No casualties have been reported.
Click here for SAMPLE EURASIA ANALYSIS
